Risk Prediction Network
Welcome to the home page of the Risk Prediction Network. This network provides a nationwide forum to engage health and social care groups, including those involved in commissioning, clinicians, community matrons, NHS and social care managers, to share ideas, experiences and knowledge on different methods of predicting and stratifying risk of local health populations.
To join the risk prediction network forum, please:
- register with NHS Networks, then
- e-mail the network co-ordinator, Phil Thomas at philip.thomas@dh.gsi.gov.uk
Risk Prediction
Risk prediction generally means using a systematic and proven method for identifying people who are at risk of rapid deterioration, exacerbation or crisis that could result in future repeated and unnecessary admission to hospital. Accurately identifying an individual who is likely to be at risk of admission in future is a complex challenge and several tools and techniques exist to help do this. Two models available are the PARR++ tool and Combined Predictive Model. Commissioned by the Department of Health and developed by the King's Fund, in partnership with Health Dialog and New York University, these models are designed to help PCTs better identify those at risk of readmission or deterioration.
- The PARR++ tool allows a PCT to use inpatient data to predict individuals at risk of readmission in the next 12 months.
- The Combined Predictive Model allows a PCT to link GP data with inpatient, outpatient and A&E datasets in order to stratify an entire population according to their risk of admission to hospital.
Aims of the Network
The key aims of this network are to help inform further learning around risk prediction and stratification. It will enable people to share solutions and successes, and provide additional support on challenging issues or queries to ensure NHS staff fully utilise the risk prediction tools available to the NHS.
Membership of the network is open to anyone who has a stake in risk prediction and population stratification, including commissioners who can use such tools to support improved commissioning. The use of good quality data is becoming increasingly important for commissioners to deliver improvements in care by targeting and tailoring their resources more effectively.
Discussion Forum
The risk prediction network has a private discussion forum. Please note that, in order to access the forum, you must be a member of this network and also logged into this site.
Helpful links
- More information about PARR++ and The Combined Model can be found at www.kingsfund.org.uk
Useful docs
- To download the PARR++ tool and read technical documentation about how to build the Combined Model, please visit: www.kingsfund.org.uk/current_projects/predictive_risk/index.html
- For policy guidance or information about long term conditions, please visit www.dh.gov.uk/longtermconditions
Network contact: Phil Thomas, philip.thomas@dh.gsi.gov.uk